The London Prat

From 2014's 'Once in a Generation' Vote to the Ongoing Argument About When Once in a Generation Actually Is The Question That Won't Stay SettledOn 18 September 2014, Scotland voted 55% to 45% to remain part of the United Kingdom. The result was described by David Cameron as decisive, by Nicola Sturgeon as a foundation, by Alex Salmond as a beginning, and by virtually everyone involved as "not the end of the matter." They were all correct. The Scottish independence question has the remarkable property of remaining perpetually unresolved regardless of what vote is taken on it, a constitutional Schrödinger's cat that is simultaneously dead and alive and will remain so until Westminster and Holyrood agree on the conditions for opening the box — an event that has not yet been scheduled.The 2014 Referendum: What Was Actually DecidedThe 2014 independence referendum was agreed between the UK and Scottish governments through the Edinburgh Agreement — a Section 30 order under the Scotland Act giving the Scottish Parliament temporary powers to hold the vote. The question was simple: "Should Scotland be an independent country?" The campaign was extraordinarily engaged — 85% turnout, the highest for any election or referendum in Scottish history — and produced a result that was decisive in numerical terms and immediately contested in constitutional terms.The No campaign's winning argument rested partly on what became known as the Vow — a commitment by the leaders of the three main UK parties to deliver "extensive new powers" to Holyrood if Scotland voted to remain. The Scotland Act 2016 delivered significant additional fiscal powers. Whether it delivered what "extensive new powers" meant to voters who took the Vow into account is a matter of interpretation, and has been interpreted very differently by people who voted No and people who voted Yes and are looking for reasons to ask again.Brexit and the Independence CalculationThe 2016 Brexit referendum changed the independence argument structurally. In 2014, the Yes campaign had argued that an independent Scotland would remain in or quickly rejoin the EU — the No campaign countered that remaining in the UK was the only way to guarantee EU membership. The Brexit vote rendered this argument not merely academic but directly reversed: Scotland voted 62% to 38% to remain in the EU, was taken out as part of the UK, and found itself outside an organisation that a substantial majority had voted to stay in, on the basis of a UK-wide majority that did not reflect Scottish preferences.This shifted the independence argument considerably. The question was no longer only about national identity and self-governance; it was about democratic consent, EU membership, and whether a nation whose preferences were consistently overridden by English electoral arithmetic was being governed in a meaningful sense or merely administered. The polling evidence showed consistent majority or near-majority support for independence in the years immediately following Brexit, though subsequent SNP governance difficulties have complicated the picture.The Section 30 Problem: Who Decides When Scotland Gets to Decide?The central constitutional dispute is whether the Scottish Parliament can hold a legally binding independence referendum without Westminster's consent — specifically without a Section 30 order granting the necessary powers. The UK Government's position is clear: the union is a reserved matter, only Westminster can authorise a referendum, and the 2014 vote settled the question for a generation. The Scottish Government's position is equally clear: the principle of self-determination means Scotland should be able to choose its constitutional future, and Westminster veto power over that choice is itself constitutionally illegitimate.In 2022, the Scottish Government asked the Supreme Court whether Holyrood could legislate for a referendum without Westminster consent. The Supreme Court ruled unanimously that it could not — the union is reserved, and a referendum on independence directly engages that reserved matter regardless of how it is framed. This was a clear legal answer to a clear legal question. It resolved nothing politically, since the SNP responded by declaring it would treat the next general election as a de facto referendum — a strategy that produced an unclear mandate in 2024 and considerable internal disagreement about what "de facto" meant in practice.The Constitutional Mechanics of Independence: What Would Actually HappenWere Scotland to vote for independence in a legally authorised referendum — which requires Westminster agreement — the constitutional process would involve negotiating the terms of separation: the currency question (join the euro, keep sterling, establish a Scottish pound), the national debt allocation, defence arrangements, EU accession, border arrangements with England, and approximately five thousand other questions that the 2014 campaign was unable to resolve and that have not become easier in the intervening years.Scotland's position on the currency has been the independence movement's most persistent difficulty. Using sterling without a currency union leaves monetary policy in London's hands — not meaningfully independent. A new Scottish currency carries transition risks. EU accession requires meeting convergence criteria, which would likely require austerity measures that the independence movement has simultaneously opposed. The Scottish Government's independence prospectus addresses these questions with varying degrees of persuasiveness, depending substantially on your prior view of independence.The independence question remains, as of 2025, unresolved, unanswerable by constitutional means currently available, and guaranteed to return at the next moment of political stress. In the Scottish constitutional tradition, this counts as stability.Auf Wiedersehen, amigo!The 2014 Scottish independence referendum produced a 55% to 45% No vote on 85% turnout, following an Edinburgh Agreement between the UK and Scottish governments authorising the vote. The Smith Commission and Scotland Act 2016 subsequently devolved additional fiscal powers. Scotland voted 62% to 38% Remain in the 2016 Brexit referendum, reigniting independence arguments. The UK Supreme Court ruled in November 2022 that the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate for an independence referendum on reserved matters without Westminster consent. The SNP, which has governed Scotland since 2007 with a brief interruption, continues to advocate for a second referendum. Current polling shows independence support roughly split, reflecting both continued grievance over Brexit and concerns about SNP governance.

Tag: Scottish Parliament

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