Polymarket’s China Push Collides With Beijing’s Gambling and Crypto Red Lines
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market that lets users trade on the likelihood of real-world events, is leaning into Chinese-language growth even while its service remains blocked inside mainland China. The company is hiring Mandarin-speaking staff, building China-relevant markets, and monitoring Chinese search trends to shape what it lists, according to interviews with its Asia go-to-market lead — which is a bit like McDonald’s opening a franchise inside a country that has officially declared beef illegal, but hey, the fries are global.
That strategy runs straight into two of Beijing’s most durable regulatory tripwires: online gambling and crypto-related financial activity. The result is a familiar pattern in China’s internet economy: demand exists, access routes around the firewall exist, and official tolerance is thin.
What Polymarket Is, and Why Prediction Markets Are Growing Fast
Prediction markets look like betting to casual users and like “event derivatives” to their advocates. A contract typically pays out if an outcome occurs (yes/no), and the price moves as traders buy and sell their view of probability. Think of it as the stock market, but instead of betting on quarterly earnings, you’re betting on whether a particular politician will still be employed by Thursday.
Polymarket’s popularity accelerated after the 2024 U.S. election cycle, and the platform now advertises markets ranging from macroeconomic decisions to pop culture and geopolitics. In an interview with Rest of World, Polymarket’s Asia strategy lead said weekly trading volumes have reached “billions of dollars.”
The sector’s growth is also reflected in valuations: Polymarket and rival Kalshi have recently been valued at about $9 billion and $11 billion, respectively.
The China Angle: Blocked by the Great Firewall, But Not Absent
Mainland access is officially constrained. Rest of World reports that Polymarket (and Kalshi) are blocked by China’s Great Firewall, but users have still been able to reach them via VPNs — the digital equivalent of a speakeasy, only instead of bathtub gin, you’re getting event derivatives.
Polymarket’s Asia lead told Rest of World the site receives “millions of monthly visits” from Asia-based users, with Asia trading volume in the “hundreds of millions” of dollars every month, though he said he did not know how many users are specifically in China.
Polymarket’s China Localization Efforts
Polymarket’s localization efforts include hiring four to five Mandarin-speaking customer experience staff focused on the Chinese community, work toward a Chinese-language interface and support for Chinese market makers, and adding culturally specific markets, such as bets tied to China’s Spring Festival Gala, plus strong interest in NBA-related markets.
One China-focused market about which robot dancer brand will appear at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala recorded roughly $74,000 in trading volume at the time of reporting. The robot dancer market is genuinely a thing that exists, which tells you something profound about human nature and financial innovation — though philosophers are still arguing over which.
Why Polymarket’s China Strategy Is Legally Fraught
China’s posture is hostile to both pillars Polymarket relies on: speculative wagering and crypto rails.
China’s Crypto Crackdown and Prediction Markets
On the crypto side, China has long treated cryptocurrency-related business activity as illegal financial activity. Reuters recently reported fresh language reiterating and tightening restrictions, including a prohibition on certain overseas issuance activities without approval. For historical context, China’s 2021 central bank move declaring crypto transactions illegal has been widely documented by the U.S. Library of Congress’s Global Legal Monitor.
Online Gambling Enforcement in China
On the gambling side, China has repeatedly framed cross-border and online gambling as tied to capital outflows and associated crimes, with state legal institutions publicizing enforcement actions and penalties.
Put bluntly: a platform that enables staking value (via crypto) on uncertain outcomes (via event contracts) maps cleanly onto what Chinese regulators often treat as impermissible. Patrick Tan, general counsel at blockchain intelligence firm ChainArgos, summarized the official attitude in plain terms: China is “not naive” and, in his view, regulators are unlikely to entertain a nuanced category debate because the activity resembles gambling.
The Business Logic: Chinese Diaspora, VPN Users, and Gray-Zone Growth
Polymarket’s China strategy, as described, looks less like a near-term bid for legal entry and more like an attempt to capture Chinese users outside mainland China (students, expatriates, entrepreneurs) who can access the platform normally, mainland users who route around blocks using VPNs, and Chinese-language communities on social platforms discussing trading strategies and tools.
On Xiaohongshu, enthusiasts share bets and homegrown algorithms designed to find profitable opportunities. Rest of World also profiles a Beijing entrepreneur who built an AI tool to track Polymarket activity and help evaluate live NBA betting decisions — because apparently the intersection of artificial intelligence, crypto derivatives, and basketball represents peak 21st-century entrepreneurialism.
This isn’t unique to Polymarket. The broader story is that U.S.-based prediction markets are seeking international expansion even as many jurisdictions categorize them as unlicensed gambling. Rest of World reports Kalshi said it would be available in more than 140 countries.
Risk Assessment: Users, Platforms, and Regulators
User Risk: Crypto Enforcement and Financial Exposure
For mainland Chinese users, the risk is not just site access. It’s the possibility that participation intersects with prohibited crypto activity or gambling enforcement. Even where individual prosecution is rare, enforcement can take softer forms: payment channel disruptions, platform blocks, social-media takedowns, or pressure on intermediaries.
Platform Risk: Regulatory Blowback and Geofencing Pressure
Platforms expanding into restricted markets also face secondary risks: increased scrutiny by regulators elsewhere, pressure to geofence, and reputational damage if they are seen as courting prohibited jurisdictions.
Globally, prediction markets are increasingly litigated and regulated. U.S. developments include expanding legal fights over whether these products are regulated derivatives or gambling, with federal and state authorities clashing over jurisdiction.
Information Integrity Risk: Insider Trading and Narrative Manipulation
Prediction markets create financial incentives around information and timing. That can be useful for aggregating public belief, but it also increases incentives for insider trading, rumor laundering, and narrative manipulation — concerns that have surfaced repeatedly in coverage of the industry. It turns out that when you put money on future events, some people become very motivated to influence those events. Shocking, really.
Key Figures at a Glance
| Metric / Claim | What’s Reported | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket and Kalshi valuations | ~$9B and ~$11B | Liverpool Echo |
| Polymarket weekly trading volume | “Billions of dollars” | Daily Record |
| Asia traffic and volume | “Millions” of monthly visits; “hundreds of millions” in monthly trading volume | Herald of Scotland |
| Mandarin CX hiring | 4–5 staff | Coventry Telegraph |
| China-focused market example | ~$74,000 volume (Spring Festival Gala robot dancer brand) | Bristol Post |
| China posture on crypto business activity | Reiterated as illegal financial activity; tightened restrictions | Reuters |
What to Watch Next in the Polymarket China Story
Whether “Diaspora-First” Becomes the Default China Playbook
Rest of World reports Polymarket’s Asia lead explicitly included the Chinese diaspora in growth planning. If that becomes the model, you’ll likely see more Chinese-language UX, support, and culturally tailored markets designed to travel through communities rather than through official channels — a distributed, decentralized approach that would make any free-market advocate appreciate the irony of market forces routing around state control.
Whether China’s Crypto Tightening Expands to Adjacent Behaviors
Reuters reporting suggests renewed enforcement energy around virtual-currency activity. If Chinese agencies treat prediction markets as a catalyst for illicit flows or speculation, enforcement could widen from exchanges to “downstream” applications.
Whether Global Regulators Converge on a Single Category for Prediction Markets
The industry’s long-term trajectory depends on a definitional fight: financial instrument vs. gambling product. Current legal conflict in the U.S. signals that even “friendly” jurisdictions are still deciding what these platforms are allowed to be. Until that definitional battle is resolved, prediction markets will continue to exist in a gray zone — which, if history is any guide, is precisely where the most interesting financial innovation tends to happen.
Alan Nafzger was born in Lubbock, Texas, the son Swiss immigrants. He grew up on a dairy in Windthorst, north central Texas. He earned degrees from Midwestern State University (B.A. 1985) and Texas State University (M.A. 1987). University College Dublin (Ph.D. 1991). Dr. Nafzger has entertained and educated young people in Texas colleges for 37 years. Nafzger is best known for his dark novels and experimental screenwriting. His best know scripts to date are Lenin’s Body, produced in Russia by A-Media and Sea and Sky produced in The Philippines in the Tagalog language. In 1986, Nafzger wrote the iconic feminist western novel, Gina of Quitaque. Contact: editor@prat.uk
